Modeling the effect of temperature on vector-borne diseases

In this work, based on recent advances in age-of-infection epidemiological modeling and previous compartmental models for Xf transmission , we develop a compartmental model that explicitly incorporates temperature-driven bacterial growth into the transmission dynamics of Pierce's disease (PD). The model tracks the progression of infection through multiple stages, with the infectivity of exposed hosts increasing as temperature accumulation progresses. Transitions between stages are determined by the rate of temperature accumulation, which reflects the local thermal environment. The model also includes the effect of cold temperatures on bacterial survival, introducing a mechanism for host recovery during winter. By linking temperature-driven pathogen growth with host and vector dynamics, the model aims to provide a more realistic framework for predicting PD risk under different climatic scenarios.