Contrasting Patterns of Pierce’s Disease Risk in European Vineyards Under Global Warming

Giménez-Romero, Àlex; Iturbide, Maialen; Moralejo, Eduardo; Gutiérrez, José M.; Matías, Manuel A.
Submitted (2024)

Pierce’s Disease (PD) is a vector-borne disease caused by the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, which poses a significant threat to grapevines worldwide. Despite its importance, the risk of future PD establishment in Europe remains unclear due to previous incomplete methodologies followed by conflicting results. Here we present a comprehensive approach considering the compound effect of climate change on the pathosystem. Within the general trend of progressively increasing PD risk, we identified the +3ºC scenario as a turning point for potential spreading beyond Mediterranean regions, representing a serious risk for French and Italian viticulture. Our innovative methodology reveals PD risk as a multi-factor multi-scale process, showing contrasting spatial patterns and different risk velocities across regions, as well as a high timing uncertainty. By overcoming previous limitations, our findings contribute to a better understanding of the potential spread of PD in Europe, supporting informed decision-making for disease management and prevention.

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